24 Expert Picks
I get it, I guess, Patrick Corbin stinks (we've faded him a bunch) and not much was though of the Nats for 2024. And Ryan Weathers has been one of very few bright spots for the Marlins. But the Nats have a legit pen and Miami's is awful. The Nats can generally catch the ball and they grind some ABs and they are spunky late in games. Miami rolls over, all the time. Miami has 6 wins in 28 tries and I am getting good plus-money on the better team winning over 9 innings. Miami is 2-13 at home. Nats are 10-10 vs everybody they've faced except the Dodgers. Far from horrible. I have to play the Nats to get the sweep here
It might not be too late to sound the alert on the Mariners, who have been playing like the best team in the American League for nearly two weeks now. The current 9-2 uptick has pushed Seattle to the top of the AL West, fueled by lights-out pitching; just nineteen runs allowed across that eleven-game span. Ask the D-backs, held to a mere one run each of the past two nights at T-Mobile and now at risk of getting swept. Arizona has to solve Logan Gilbert, who has an 0.86 ERA his last three starts, and the Mariners bullpen to give a better chance to Brandon Pfaadt, in whose last four starts the D-backs have lost. Play Mariners on Run Line
He has 31 RBIs already this season. He has 7 in the last 7 games and 16 in the last 15 games. He did not get an RBI yesterday; only once this season has he gone two games in a row without an RBI. Guardians going with a journeyman starter today who has been good so far with in short doses, but sports a career ERA of 4.91. I'll take my chances
Tatis has cooled way off after a hot start, but he sees this starter very well and many of his teammates do as well and Tijuan Waker is making his first start of the season and those can tend to go sideways quickly. Tatis has homered off him several times before and is due for a bomb himself and likes hitting at home. Padres must be licking their chops after seeing some aces lately
This is a lot of juice but I am willing to lay it as KD has made a total of 3 three pointers so far in this series and has only attempted 9 total. KD and the Suns appear demoralized. Jaden McDaniels is playing tremendous defense on KD as well. Durant only made 3+ threes in 37% of his regular season games, meanwhile Durant has been held UNDER this line in seven consecutive games against the Wolves including four regular season matchups.
Anyone who is on here much knows I am a Tarik Skubal believer (and anyone who saw my credit card bill from peak covid knows I was buying the kids 1st Bowman cards like a demon though you shouldn't invest n pitchers). Anyway he may be the best lefty in baseball right now and outside of Sal the Royals haven't hit him much. He is in peak form and I could see him running up the punchouts a bit today and only going around 5 2/3 and leaving with a gooseegg on the scoreboard. He did not give up a run in 4 of 6 starts and of his 6 ER, 4 came in one rough start when he was pitching on very irregular rest
Albert Suarez's return to the majors has gone well so far after five years pitching internationally, as he's thrown 5.2 scoreless innings in each of his two starts, building up to 89 pitches in his most recent outing. He's exceeded 15 outs in three of his five starts (including Triple-A) and threw plenty of innings abroad the last few years. This may be his last MLB start for a while with the rotation getting healthier, and I expect him to be at his best against an A's offense that's one of the worst in baseball at 2.75 runs per game, including nine straight games with three runs or fewer. The matchup and the focus of making one final MLB impression should lead to this Over.
Michael Wacha is a solid veteran pitcher who eats innings and I like his chances to potentially turn in 6 IP against a Detroit offense that ranks 27th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. Wacha has eclipsed this prop in 17/29 starts dating back to last season.
We have been on the young Pirates starter since his first outing of the season and continue to look for different ways to back Jared Jones. Wipeout stuff and a lot of self confidence serving him well first trip through the league. Big ballpark should help him here, I like him in a matinee and all we need is to stay lose. Giants are not a goof baseball team and we avoid some bullpen variance, Jones is 2nd in MLB in K/W ratio in the 1st 5 innings, 6th in WHIP, 9th in K/9 and 19th in BABIP (.196), forcing ugly ABs and soft contact on bad swings. He starts fast and we don't need a ton out of the Pirates bats
Neither of these teams is hitting a ton but I like the M's ability to win close low-scoring games, something they find themselves in a lot of. Logan Gilbert looks like an ace again, while the Arizona rotation has some issues, especially after the top two arms. The kid going today doesn't look anything like what he did in the playoffs (it happens) and is giving up a hit an inning. Mariners have been covering this regularly against NL teams (7 of last vs Senior Circuit). Gilbert can be downright unhittable and I like him in a day game with the sun/shadows
The Jays lineup, like last year, remains an exercise in futility and the guys in the middle are simply not getting it done. The guy on the mound for them isn't pitching close to how he did when he was in the Cy Young conversation. The Dodgers starter is inexperienced but I expects the bats to rally around him. Toronto has no chemistry, players are coddled and yet another manager will be fired in-season. Going to be fading them in the dog days of May. Once again they are highly overrated
Daulton Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Let's take a shot at +500!
It's daunting to go against the Dodgers, who have a six-game winning streak. However, the Blue Jays hope to avoid a three-game sweep by sending Kevin Gausman to the mound. Toronto's three and four batters, Varsho and Turner, had a rough day, going 0-for-8 with five strikeouts on Saturday. Nonetheless, Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Hence, I plan to add his home run prop. Following this game, the Dodgers will fly to Arizona for a series against the D-Backs. Play Toronto!
There were such oddities in Game 3 of this series on Friday night that we wonder if Opryland would have been a more fitting locale than Bridgestone Arena. Vancouver won a game when it took only 12 shots on goal for 60 minutes, and did so with its back-up goalie (Casey DeSmith) standing on his head in the 2-1 win. Nashville was left to rue several missed chances, but no reason for Preds fans to fret, as this series have been effectively zig-zagging, and Juuse Saros has been good enough in goal (2.03 in this series) to help Nashville get back to level before heading back to Vancouver. Play Preds on Puck Line
Philly should likely be ahead 2-1 in this series, still kicking itself for throwing away Game 2 in the last 30 seconds last Monday night at MSG. But the answer back home on Thursday at Wells Fargo Center was emphatic, pulling clear of the Knicks in the second half, with Joel Embiid near unstoppable as he scored 50 points. The Sixers also survived a 39-point Jalen Brunson onslaught, and solved Tom Thibodeau's defense enough to his almost 55% from the floor. We'd be surprised if this series doesn't return to New York level, with both teams at two wins apiece. Play Sixers